The Economist: Managing Uncertainty: Strategies for surviving and thriving in turbulent times - Hardcover

The global financial crisis has ushered in a period of extreme uncertainty leaving major unresolved issues, such as the euro-zone crisis, which may take years to play out fully. Managing this level of uncertainty has introduced a new and complex challenge for managers, for whom there has been no established framework to help them prepare and steer their company through turbulent and unpredictable waters. This book provides such a framework. Through a detailed survey conducted by PA Consulting Group in collaboration with the authors and follow-up interviews by them with senior executives in a range of leading global firms that explored the way organisations reacted to the shock and aftershocks of the financial crisis, the authors have identified six critical characteristics that organisations must display if they are to survive and thrive in these uncertain times. These characteristics are:

• Strategic anticipation
• Navigational leadership
• Agility

Many industries are seeing unprecedented shifts in market share, resulting in a clear separation between winners and losers. The message of this book is that business leaders who act now to develop these six characteristics in their own organisation—facing the possibility of turbulence and planning to emerge stronger from it—will be the winners.

"A book that every CEO should read — and act on. Doing so may make the difference between winning and losing in the coming crisis."
Sir John Banham, former chairman of Johnson Matthey PLC and Whitbread PLC, and former Director-General of the Confederation of British Industry

The need to manage uncertainty has become increasingly important. The feedback gleaned from senior executives interviewed for the book suggests that, in their eyes, there is no precise definition of uncertainty and therefore no precise solution. Some viewed the task of managing uncertainty as no more than an extension of financial risk management, entailing the need for financial "buffers" brought about by greater liquidity. Others saw the challenge in broader terms, entailing a more flexible approach to strategy formulation and shorter, more regular reviews of progress and change, using non-financial measures as well as more conventional fiduciary ones. There was no consensus on a distinct and coherent set of skills to help support the task. The imperative stressed over and over again related to an organisation's "strategic readiness" for sudden and unexpected threats and opportunities—through a combination of strategic flexibility, strong navigational leadership, resilience, collaborative partnership, predictive learning and agility. This focus is reflected in the book's structure and conclusions.